Live matrix

Model columns are the EXACT conditional probabilities the paper books trade on this beat — frozen (prematch v1.6), uniform (score+clock, xG-blind; shadow-stream baseline since V7 removed the In-game book, 2026-07-15), B2P-k30 (live-xG Bayesian update on the profile clock; prices Live xG from minute 25 and HT xG since V5, 2026-07-13 — the wall-clock B2 keeps quoting in shadow). Market = Kalshi mid. Gap = B2P − market (uniform − market before B2 wakes). "tracked" = divergence breaker active, books at 1-lot stakes.