Live paper desk

updated — · refreshes every 30s · data lands within one 2-min loop beat of each simulated fill · ledger V8 (prop-gap breaker removed 2026-07-19, post-final, full-history replay; each strategy change freezes the prior ledger version: V3 · V4 · V5 · V6 · V7) · live matrix · static archive: blotter · predictions

Books

Cumulative P&L

waiting for data…

Bets

Paper account — no real orders. Fills simulated as taker at the displayed Kalshi touch, 7% taker fee netted. Four independent $500 books; Live xG trades from minute 25 onward on in-play expected goals, HT xG from the break and second half only. Entry requires the model to beat the execution price by 2c net of fees; stakes are half-Kelly on a market-blended probability; >20pp 1x2 divergence trades 1-lot tracking stakes ("tracked"). Settlement: regulation time. CLV = entry vs pre-kickoff closing mid (prematch), in cents. Brier: lower is better, scored on settled props only. Sharpe is annualized from daily equity and needs ≥3 trading days.